Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
