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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest competition is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against several other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still